Ⅰ 經濟學英文論文 Impact Of Oil Prices On Inflation Economics 有能能夠幫忙或者推薦個靠譜點的嗎 可報酬
我不會哈哈哈哈哈哈
Ⅱ 求一篇2000字的經濟類英文文章及翻譯（英文要2000字），謝謝！
Health care
A new prescription for the poor
為貧窮者新開的處方
America is developing a two-tier health system, one for those with private insurance, the other for the less well-off
美國正在發展一個雙重的健康系統，一重是為那些有個人保險的人群，而另一重則是為那些不那麼富裕的人群
Oct 8th 2011 | NEW YORK | from the print edition
「IT』S
time for Dancing with the Stars!」, a woman announces enthusiastically.
At this New York health centre, wedged between housing projects to the
east and Chinatown to the west, 「dancing with the stars」 means dancing
with a physical therapist. An old man stands up with a nurse and begins a
determined samba.
「是時候和明星一起跳舞了！」一位女士滿懷熱情地宣告。在這個坐落於房屋工程的西面，唐人街東面的紐約健康中心，「和明星起舞」的意思是和一位物理治療師跳舞。一位老者和一個護士站起來，開始跳事先確定好的桑巴舞。
Comprehensive
Care Management (CCM), which runs this centre, tries to keep old people
active. To do so, explains Joseph Healy, the chief operating officer,
is in the company』s best interest. The government pays CCM a capped rate
for the care of its members. If someone gets sick, his health costs
rise and the company』s margin shrinks. Mr Healy argues that the system
is the best way to provide good care at a low cost. Increasingly others
seem to agree.
經營這個中心的綜合護理管理部門（CCM）努力保持老人們的活力。約瑟夫-海莉，首席運營官解釋說，這樣做符合公司
的最佳利益。政府給這個部門一個封頂的津貼來讓他們照顧這些人。如果有人生病了，他的健康成本就會上升，公司的利潤就會萎縮。海莉先生確定說這個系統能夠
在一個低成本上提供最佳的護理。其他人也逐漸同意這個觀點。
Medicaid, America』s health programme
for the poor, is in the process of being transformed. Over the next
three years, New York will move its entire Medicaid population into
「managed care」, paying companies a set rate to tend to the poor, rather
than paying a fee for each service. New York is not alone. States from
California to Mississippi are expanding managed care. It is the
culmination of a steady shift in the way most poor Americans receive
their health-care treatment.
公共醫療補助，即美國的窮人健康計劃，正在被改造的過程中。在接下來的
三年內，紐約將把整個接受窮人健康計劃的人群納入「管理關懷」之中，付給公司們一個事先定好的費用來照顧那些窮人，而不是按照項目來付費。紐約不是唯一這
樣做的州。加州，密西西比州正在拓展管理關懷計劃。這代表一種正在進行中的穩步轉變，即大部分貧窮美國人接受健康關懷方式的轉變。
Medicaid
is America』s single biggest health programme. This year roughly one in
five Americans will be covered by Medicaid for a month or more. It
gobbles more federal and local money than any state programme, other
than ecation. Costs will rise even more when Barack Obama』s
health-care reform expands the programme by easing eligibility rules in
2014. Congress』s 「supercommittee」 is already considering cuts. However,
there are more immediate pressures behind the present drive for change.
公
共醫療補助是美國最大的單一健康計劃。今年，五個美國人中的一個就會被納入該計劃一個月或更長時間。除了教育之外，它比其他任何州的財政計劃耗去更多聯邦
和地方的經費。當2014年奧巴馬的健康保險改革放寬適用人群而使整個計劃更加龐大的時候，成本將會進一步上升。眾議院的「超級委員會」已經在考慮削減經
費。然而，選擇這種變化，將會有更多即刻的壓力存在。
Enrolment in Medicaid jumped ring the
downturn, from 42.7m in December 2007 to 50.3m in June 2010. Mr Obama』s
stimulus bill helped to pay for some of this, but that money has dried
up. Faced with gaping deficits, some desperate governors slashed
payments to hospitals and doctors, or refused to pay for trips to the
dentist or oculist. But much the most important result has been
structural: the expansion of managed care.
公共醫療補助計劃的參與人數在經濟滑坡期間從2007年
12月的
4270萬人跳到了2010年6月的5030萬人。奧巴馬先生的經濟刺激經費能夠幫助付掉其中的一部分，但是錢已經被用光。面對資金短缺，一些絕望的州長
砍掉了給醫院和醫生的補助，或是拒絕支付牙醫和眼科醫生的旅行費用。但是，更多地，最重要的結果是結構上的：管理關懷的拓展。
States
have dabbled in managed care for decades. The trend accelerated in the
1990s, with the share of Medicaid patients under this form of care
reaching 72% by 2009. Now, however, there is a strong push for the
remainder. States that did not have managed care, such as Louisiana, are
introcing it. Other states are extending it to people previously
deemed off limits: California and New York, for example, are moving the
elderly and disabled into that system of care. Texas is targeting more
than 400,000 Medicaid beneficiaries in the Rio Grande Valley. Local
politicians had resisted the move, nervous that care might deteriorate.
But the yawning deficit meant that they were overruled.
各個州涉足管理關懷已經有幾
十年的歷史了。這個趨勢在90年代得到加速發展，在2009年前使用這種護理方式的公共醫療補助病人佔到了72%。現在，對於剩下的人，這也是很強的推動
力。像路易斯安那州這樣沒有管理關懷的州正在引進管理關懷。其他州也把這個拓展到原先被認為不適用的人群：舉例說像加州和紐約州，正在把老人和殘障人士納
入這個系統中，德州的目標是在格蘭德河谷超過400000公共醫療補助收益人群。地方政治家反對這個舉動，他們擔心這個護理系統將會變質。但是巨大的赤字
意味著他們的觀點註定要被批駁。
The result is a country with two distinct tiers
of health care. Most Americans with private insurance are still
horrified by thoughts of health-management organisations and prefer to
pay fees for each medical service. For the poor, managed care is
becoming the norm.
結果就是一個國家有兩套截然不同的健康保險系統。大多數有個人保險的美國人仍舊害怕那些健康管理組織的想法而寧願為單獨的醫療服務付費。對於窮人來說，管理關懷已經成為一種常規。
Advocates
of managed care have high expectations. First, they hope that it will
make costs more predictable. Second, they believe that the change will
improve patients』 health. In managed care, a patient has a network of
doctors and specialists. If the programme works properly, doctors can
monitor all aspects of care, in contrast to the fragmented
fee-for-service system. The contracts that states have with firms can
set standards for quality. Texas, for instance, will cut 5% from a
company』s payment if it does not meet what is required.
管理關懷的鼓吹者有著很高的
期待。首先，他們希望這能讓成本變得可以預測，其次，他們相信，這個改變可以改善病人的健康。在管理關懷中，一個病人有一個由醫生和專家組成的網路。如果
這個計劃運行良好，醫生可以監測關懷的各個方面，相對於分離的的按服務付錢的系統來說。州政府和公司的合同可以為質量定下標准。德州，舉例說，將會在付款
中扣除5%如果公司沒有達到要求的標准。
The next step is to integrate care for those
eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare, the federal programme for the
old. These 「als」 account for almost 40% of Medicaid』s costs and just
15% of its population. 「If managed care can really deliver better care
than fee-for-service」, says Diane Rowland, chair of the commission that
advises Congress on Medicaid, 「this is the population that could prove
it.」
下一步是整合那些同時符合公共醫療補助和長者醫療補助計劃（聯邦老人醫療補助）的人群。這些「雙符合」人群占據了將近40%的公共醫療補
助成本和僅僅15%的人口數量。「如果管理關懷能真正比按項目付費帶來更好的服務」，戴安-羅蘭德，委員會（指導國會在公共醫療補助政策上進行決策）主任
說：「這是一群能證明管理關懷可行的人。」
But some, such as Norma Vescovo, are
sceptical. As the head of the non-profit Independent Living Centre of
Southern California (ILCSC), Ms Vescovo serves Medicaid patients with
severe health problems. Over the years she has often sued California on
policies that she thinks will hurt her vulnerable clients. On October
3rd her case moved to the Supreme Court.
但是一些人，例如像諾瑪-凡斯科夫就對此表示懷疑。作為非盈利的南加州獨立生活中心主任，凡斯科夫女士服務於那些有嚴重健康問題的接受公共醫療補助的病人。在這些年間，她經常控告加州政府在一些政策上會傷害她的一些脆弱的客戶。在10月3日，她的案子被移到了上訴法院。
The
outcome of Douglas v Independent Living Centre will have profound
implications for the future of Medicaid. Ms Vescovo』s suit concerns cuts
to hospitals and doctors. But the case will also guide the course of
managed care. If ILCSC and its co-plaintiffs win, private groups will
continue to be able to challenge states on policies they think violate
federal Medicaid law. Ms Vescovo, who argues that California』s payment
cuts would eviscerate her clients』 access to services, worries that
under managed care the disabled might not be able to see the specialists
they need.
道格拉斯 v
獨立生活中心的結果將會對公共醫療補助有深遠的意義。凡斯科夫女士的訴訟影響到醫院和醫生的津貼削減。但是這個案子將會引領管理關懷的進程。如果中心和其
他原告勝訴，私人團體將會繼續在那些他們認為違反聯邦法律的政策上挑戰州政府。凡斯科夫女士認為說加州的支付削減計劃會讓她的客戶失去得到服務的機會，她
還擔心，在管理關懷之下，那些殘障人士可能不能見到那些他們需要的專家。
The question is how to
supervise the experiments with managed care that are being carried out
in various states. To date, Medicaid beneficiaries have been able to
challenge the states in court. However, if the Supreme Court rules
against ILCSC, that avenue will be closed. The Centres for Medicare and
Medicaid Services (CMS) technically can intervene if states do not
provide proper access to care. In reality, CMS has few tools to do so.
問
題是怎麼監管在不同州試運行的管理關懷。到目前為止，公共醫療補助受益者已經能夠在法庭中挑戰政府。然而，如果上訴法庭結果不利於中心，那麼這條路將會被
關閉。如果州政府沒有提供合適的關懷的話，公共醫療補助和長者醫療關懷中心理論上是能對此進行干涉，但事實上，他們沒有太多辦法。
「I』m
a big fan of managed care」, says Sara Rosenbaum, a professor at George
Washington University, 「but this transformation may happen with almost
no federal oversight.」 Medicaid beneficiaries are vulnerable, in worse
health than Americans as a whole. Companies may struggle to cut costs
and provide good care as well. If states do not draft their contracts
properly, or fail to be vigilant in monitoring patients』 health, their
experiment in managed care could be a disaster. On the other hand, if
states are careful they could provide an answer to the question that has
vexed America for years: how to provide good, cheap health care.
「我是
管理關懷的擁護者」，薩拉-羅森博姆，一位喬治華盛頓大學教授說，「但是這種轉變可能在沒有聯邦監管的情況下發生。」公共醫療補助的受益者和你脆弱，健康
程度整體上比一般美國人要差。公司可能在削減成本的同時掙扎著同樣提供良好的服務。如果州政府們不好好起草他們的合同，或沒有警覺地監控病人的健康的話，
他們在管理關懷上的實驗可能會是一場災難。另一方面，如果州政府們認真的話，他們能為那個困擾美國人多年的問題提供答案，即怎麼提供優質的便宜的健康關
懷。
Ⅲ 經濟類的英文論文
Half-way from rags to riches
Apr 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Vietnam has made a remarkable recovery from war and penury, says Peter Collins (interviewed here). But can it change enough to join the rich world?
Eyevine
Correction to this article
KNEES and knuckles scraping the ground, the visitors struggle to keep up with the tour guide who is briskly leading the way through the labyrinth of claustrophobic burrows g into the hard earth. The legendary Cu Chi tunnels, from which the Viet Cong launched waves of surprise attacks on the Americans ring the Vietnam war, are now a popular tourist attraction (pictured above). Visitors from all over the world arrive daily at the site near the city that used to be called Saigon, renamed Ho Chi Minh City after the Communists took the south in 1975.
Alongside the wreckage of an abandoned M41 tank another friendly guide demonstrates a dozen types of improvised booby-traps with sharp spikes that were set in and around the tunnels to maim pursuing American soldiers. The Vietnamese not only welcome the tourist dollars Cu Chi brings in, but are also rather proud of it. They feel it demonstrates their ingenuity, adaptability, perseverance and, above all, their determination to resist much stronger foreign invaders, as the country has done many times down the centuries.
These days Vietnam also has plenty of other things to be proud of. In the 1980s Ho Chi Minh's successors as party leaders damaged the war-ravaged economy even more by attempting to introce real communism, collectivising land ownership and repressing private business. This caused the country to slide to the brink of famine. The collapse soon afterwards of its cold-war sponsor, the Soviet Union, added to the country's deep isolation and cut off the flow of roubles that had kept its economy going. Neighbouring countries were inundated with desperate Vietnamese 「boat people」.
Since then the country has been transformed by almost two decades of rapid but equitable growth, in which Vietnam has flung open its doors to the outside world and liberalised its economy. Over the past decade annual growth has averaged 7.5%. Young, prosperous and confident Vietnamese throng downtown Ho Chi Minh City's smart Dong Khoi street with its designer shops. The quality of life is high for a country that until recently was so poor, and its larger cities have retained some of their colonial charm, though choking traffic and constant construction work are beginning to take their toll.
An agricultural miracle has turned a country of 85m once barely able to feed itself into one of the world's main providers of farm proce. Vietnam has also become a big exporter of clothes, shoes and furniture, soon to be joined by microchips when Intel opens its $1 billion factory outside Ho Chi Minh City. Imports of machinery are soaring. Exports plus imports equal 160% of GDP, making the economy one of the world's most open.
All this has kept government revenues buoyant despite cuts in import tariffs. The recent introction of company taxes is also helping to fill the government's coffers. Spending on public services has surged, yet public debt, at an acceptable 43% of GDP, has remained fairly stable.
Having made peace with its former foes, Vietnam hosted Presidents Bush, Putin and Hu at the Asia-Pacific summit in 2006 and joined the World Trade Organisation in 2007. This year it has one of the rotating seats on the UN Security Council.
Vietnam's Communists conceded economic defeat 22 years ago, in the depths of a crisis, and brought in market-based reforms called doi moi (renewal), similar to those Deng Xiaoping had introced in China a few years earlier. As in China, it took time for the effects to show up, but over the past few years economic liberalisation has been fostering rapid, poverty-recing growth.
The World Bank's representative in Vietnam, Ajay Chhibber, calls Vietnam a 「poster child」 of the benefits of market-oriented reforms. Not only does it comply with the catechism of the 「Washington Consensus」— enterprise, free trade, sensible state finances and so on—but it also ticks all the boxes for the Millennium Development Goals, the UN's anti-poverty blueprint. The proportion of households with electricity has doubled since the early 1990s, to 94%. Almost all children now attend primary school and benefit from at least basic literacy.
Vietnam no longer really needs the multilateral organisations' aid. Multilateral and bilateral donors together have promised the country $5.4 billion in loans and grants this year, but with so much foreign investment pouring in, Vietnam's currency reserves increased by almost double that figure last year. At least the aid donors have learned from the mid-1990s, when excessive praise discouraged Vietnam from continuing to reform, prompting an exos of investors. Now the tone in private meetings with officials is much franker, says a diplomat who attends them.
Vietnam has become the darling of foreign investors and multinationals. Firms that draw up a 「China-plus-one」 strategy for new factories in case things go awry in China itself often make Vietnam the plus-one. Wage costs remain well below those in southern China and proctivity is growing faster, albeit from a lower base. When the UN Conference on Trade and Development asked multinationals where they planned to invest this year and next, Vietnam, at number six, was the only South-East Asian country in the top ten.
The government's programme of selling stakes in publicly owned firms and exposing them to market discipline has recently gathered pace. At the same time the switch from a command economy to free competition has allowed the Vietnamese people's entrepreneurialism to flourish. Almost every household now seems to be running a micro-business on the side, and a slew of ambitious larger firms is coming to the stockmarket.
Much of the praise now being showered anew on the country is deserved. The government is well on course for its target of turning Vietnam into a middle-income country by 2010. Its longer-term aim, of becoming a modern instrial nation by 2020, does not seem unrealistic.
But from now on the going may get tougher. As Mr Chhibber notes, few countries escape the 「middle-income trap」 as they become richer. They tend to lose their reformist zeal and see their growth fizzle. A study in 2006 by the Vietnamese Academy of Social Sciences concluded that further rections in poverty will require higher growth rates than in the past because the remaining poor are well below the poverty line, whereas many of those who recently crossed it did not have far to go.
The stench of corruption
The Communist Party leadership openly admits that the Vietnamese public is fed up with the endemic corruption at all levels of public life, from lowly traffic policemen and clerks to the most senior people in ministries. In 2006, just before the party's five-yearly congress, the transport minister resigned and several officials were arrested over a scandal in which millions of dollars of foreign aid were gambled on the outcome of football matches. The leadership insists it is doing its best to clean up, but a lot remains to be done.
Almost as bad as the corruption is the glacial speed of legislative and bureaucratic processes. Proposed laws have to pass through all sorts of hoops before taking effect, with endless rounds of consultations to build consensus. The dividing line between the Communist Party, the government and the courts is not always clear. The justice system is rudimentary. Lawyers have no formal access to past case files, so they find it hard to use precedent in legal argument.
The government is part-way through a huge project to slim the bureaucracy and streamline official proceres. It recently cut the number of ministries from 28 to 22. Yet for the moment the bureaucratic logjam is stopping the country building the roads, power stations and other public works it needs to maintain its growth rate. Nguyen Tan Dung, the prime minister, says that if growth is to continue at its current rate, the country's electricity-generating capacity needs to double by 2010. That seems a tall order, to put it mildly.
Soaring car-ownership is leaving the country's underdeveloped roads increasingly gridlocked. In an admirably liberal attempt to limit price distortions as oil surged above $100 a barrel, the government slashed fuel subsidies in February. But one effect will be to stoke inflation, already worryingly high at 19.4% in March. Bank lending surged by 38% last year as firms and indivials borrowed to speculate on shares and property.
The government is finding it much harder to manage an economy made up of myriad private companies, banks and investors than to issue instructions to a limited number of state institutions, especially as the public sector is currently suffering a drain of talent to private firms that are able to offer much higher pay.
What could go wrong
All this leaves Vietnam's continued economic development exposed to a number of risks:
• Rising inflation—which is hurting low earners in particular—and a growing shortage of affordable housing could create a new urban underclass among unskilled workers who have left the land for the cities. Combined with rising resentment at official corruption and the increasing visibility of Vietnam's new rich, this could cause social friction and bring strikes and protests, chipping away at the political stability that has underpinned Vietnam's strong growth and investment.
• Trade liberalisation and increased domestic competition will benefit some firms and farmers but hurt others—especially inefficient state enterprises. These could join forces and press the government to halt or even reverse the reforms.
• The slumping stockmarket or perhaps a property crash could cause a big firm or bank to fail. Given the country's weak and untested bankruptcy laws and financial regulators, the authorities may find it hard to deal with that kind of calamity.
• Natural disasters, from bird flu to floods, could cause chaos.
• The economy could come up against the limits of its creaking infrastructure and the shortage of people with higher skills. Jammed roads, power blackouts and the inability to fill managerial and professional jobs could all bring Vietnam's growth rate crashing down.
Vietnam has set itself such demanding standards that even if some combination of these factors did no more than push annual growth below 5%, it would be seen as a serious setback. The foreign minister, Pham Gia Khiem, notes that Vietnam's current growth of around 8-9% is lower than that in Asia's richest economies at the same stage in their development.
Despite the risks ahead, Vietnam has already provided the world with an admirable model for overcoming war, division, penury and isolation and growing strongly but equitably to reach middle-income status. This model could be followed by many impoverished African states or, closer to home, perhaps by North Korea. If it can be combined with graal political liberalisation, it might even offer something for China to think about.
Ⅳ 經濟學論文英文參考文獻
知網上很多
Ⅳ 急求中英文對照的經濟學論文
畢業設計專賣
機械專業，經濟管理，法律專業，計算機專業，數控專業，自動化專業，機電一體化專業，等等，設計都是其他學校答辯通過的
Ⅵ 經濟類英語文章
建議你去滬江論壇上看看，或者就是《The Economist》
Ⅶ 急求一篇英文的經濟學論文
授之以魚不如授之以漁！蛋卷是某大學國際貿易學系學生，很高興能幫上你。其實回有個很好的辦法答可以讓你迅速拿到這樣的文獻。我們一般找中英文的文獻和論文都是用這樣的辦法。上google，然後收索你要的作品名稱或者重點詞彙在後面加.pdf.例如 「 economic .pdf」或者「 economic .doc」 這樣。你要找什麼論文或者文獻就重點詞+.pdf 或者重點詞+.doc 蛋卷用這個辦法屢試不爽，你可以多找幾篇，看看論文的架構和作者的思路，並且適當參考。蛋卷提醒使用此方法應該注意的問題：1.一定要用google，因為只有google帶有強大的pdf文件檢索功能，效果會偏差。 2.注意重點詞，如果用一個重點詞找不到合適的論文，建議換幾個重點詞試試，肯定可以下到論文 3.盡量從檢索頁第一頁偏下方開始找論文。因為google也是有檢索排行的，所以一些論文網站會排在你檢索到的信息前面，一般都是需要注冊或者付費下載。一般直接點開鏈接就出現下載的頁面在檢索頁第一頁靠後一點的位置開始。 4.多試試，肯定有。相信蛋卷。希望蛋卷的回答對你有幫助。
Ⅷ 求經濟類英文文章(帶中文翻譯)
INTO THE STORM
FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world』s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China』s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.
過去一年的大部分時間里，高速發展的新興國家一直在遠處觀望著西方國家的金融風暴。他們的銀行僅持有少量抵押資產，而類似的資產已經破壞了發達國家的金融公司。商品出口商因為原材料的高價格而日漸富有。中國不可抗拒的經濟力量已然開啟，而且信貸刺激的內需從布達佩斯到巴西利亞都表現得非常充足。盡管大蕭條後關於西方國家受難於金融崩塌的話題與日俱增，但新興國家似乎距離金融風暴的中心還有一段距離。
No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world』s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.
不過目前的情況不再是那樣了，隨著境外資本的流失和經濟信心的消失，新興國家股市暴跌（有些地區已經腰斬），本幣迅速貶值。由於外國銀行突然中斷貸款，並且收縮了包括貿易信貸在內的基礎銀行服務，新興國家的信貸市場突發混亂，並引發了一場浩劫。
Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services instry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks』 debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.
新興國家的政府和發達國家的政府一樣都在為控制損失程度而奮斗。不過對於外匯儲備充足的國家來說難度會小一些：俄羅斯斥資2200億美元重振金融服務行業；韓國政府擔保了1000億美元的銀行債務。而那些儲備並不充足的國家正在四處求援：匈牙利成功向歐洲央行求得了50億歐元（約66億美元）的生命線，同時也在同國際貨幣基金組織協商借款事宜，同時向國際貨幣基金組織求援的還有烏克蘭。近一打兒的國家在向基金組織求助。
Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China』s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.
有持續問題的國家正棋行險招：阿根廷正在將私人養老金國有化，意圖阻止違約的發生。即使強有力的國家也表現出虛弱一面：本周公布的數字表明今年中國的增長率在第三季度減緩為9%，雖然增速還算快，但是與近些年的兩位數增率相比緩慢了不少。
Blowing cold on credit
對信貸沒興趣
The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.
眾多新興經濟的意願並不相同，但是累計在一起的影響力卻非同一般。最明顯的就是這些國家的表現將會決定世界經濟所面臨的是一個較為緩和的衰退還是更可怕的情況。在過去18個月的全球經濟增長中，新興經濟貢獻了75%。但是他們的經濟命運也會有一些政治後果。
In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today』s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.
在類似東歐的很多地區，金融混亂目前的打擊目標是軟弱的政府；但強硬的政權同樣會嘗到苦果。一些專家認為中國每年需要7%的增長率來阻止社會動盪的發生。總體來說，如此爭端必將影響全球經濟一體化的討論。與以往數次新興經濟危機不同，這次的混亂始於發達國家，很大程度上要歸咎於一體化的資本市場。一旦新興經濟崩潰，無論是貨幣危機還是劇烈的經濟蕭條，大家對於金融全球化是否屬明智之舉會有更多的質疑。
Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.
幸運的是上述恐怖的場景沒有發生在全球的每個角落：所有的新興經濟都會減緩發展速度，有一些也必將面臨深度蕭條；但是更多的國家在面臨當下危機的時候卻擁有比以往任何時候都強壯的形式，用充足的儲備、彈性的貨幣和強大的預算武裝自己。新興國家及發達國家良好的政策可以避免大災難的發生。
One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world』s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.
至少有一個原因值得抱有希望：發達國家此次災難的直接經濟影響還是在可控的范圍內。歐美銳減的需求對出口來說無疑是一個打擊，特別是對亞洲和墨西哥。商品價格走低：原油價格與巔峰時期比較已經下降了60%，很多糧食和金屬類商品跌幅更大。這兩個現象有混合效果：盡管從俄羅斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企業備受打擊，但卻幫助了亞洲的商品（能源）進口商，並且緩和了各地對通脹的恐懼。委內瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不過由於過去極度的繁榮，商品價格下跌目前還不會引發大范圍傳播的危機。
The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China』s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.
比商品價格更令人震驚的事情發生在金融領域。由於資產價格的下降，財富水平正在被擠壓縮水。以中國房價為例，目前已經開始下跌。盡管新興國家的消費者比發達國家的負債水平低很多，上述情況還是會挫傷國內的經濟信心。在其他方面，國外銀行借款驟然匱乏、對沖基金以及其他投資者逃離債券市場，這些因素給信貸增長踩了一腳急剎車。正如發達的信貸曾經強力支撐國內支出那樣，信貸緊縮將意味著增長放緩。
Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world』s bank l-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers』 group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.
需要再次重申的是，沖擊的表現會因國家的不同而有所區別。多虧中國和海灣產油國經常項目下的巨額順差，新型經濟整體還不斷的向發達國家輸送資本。但是80 多個國家的財政赤字已經超過GDP的5%，其中的多數是那些依靠國外救助過活得貧困國家；不過也有一些依靠私人資本的大國。對於類似土耳其和南非的國家來說，突然減緩的境外融資迫使其進行大幅調整。東歐的情況特別令人擔憂，那裡的不少國家赤字水平已經達到了兩位數。另外，象俄羅斯這樣處於順差的國家，其銀行也逐漸適應了可以輕易從外國取得的貸款，原因自然是全球金融一體化。發達國家的救助計劃也許可以限制財富被擠壓的水平，但資本流向新興世界的速度無疑會減慢。國際金融研協會預測私人資本的凈流量比去年回減少30%。
A wing and a prayer
飛行之翼與祈禱者
This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.
信貸緊縮必將令人生畏，不過多數新興市場可以躲過一劫，最大的市場形勢還相當不錯。比較脆弱的市場可以（也應該）得到幫助。
Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country』s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China』s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.
在那些堅強的巨人中，中國卓然不群：手握2萬億美元的儲備，經常項下的順差狀態，與國外銀行罕有關聯，過剩的預算給推動支出留有足夠空間。鑒於國家領導人已經明確表示將不惜一切代價為經濟增長減速緩沖，中國的經濟增長應該會減緩到大約8%的水平，但是決不會崩潰。雖然這不足以挽救世界經濟，但是該增長率將會為商品價格建底並幫到新興世界的其他國家。
The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil』s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.
其他的經濟大國會受到更大的沖擊，不過應該可以禁受住風暴侵襲。印度的財政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面臨巨大的外匯風險。但巴西經濟已經實現多樣化，同時上述兩個國家擁有充足的儲備來平穩過渡到緩慢的增長。俄羅斯掌握著5500億美元的儲備，應該能夠阻止對盧布的搶購。至少在短期內，小國家才是最弱不禁風的。
There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America』s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will l them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.
受到緊縮信貸壓力進行的調整必然帶來痛苦，但快速的國際援助是明智之舉，因為這會讓結果很不相同。一些新興國家已經向美聯儲求援以緩解流動性問題；有一些則希望中國可以拯救他們與水火。更佳的求救路線莫過於國際貨幣基金組織，因為它掌握大量的專門知識和2500億美元的可出借款項。不幸的是人們認為向基金借款有辱其名，國際貨幣基金組織應該推出更快捷、更靈活的金融工具，同時實現借貸條件最小化。過去數月中，機敏的決策驅散了發達國家的災難。現在也正是新興世界發生類似事情的時候了。
希望採納
Ⅸ 經濟學 求薩繆爾森的經濟論文（中英對照的更好） 其他經濟學家的也要 同時求世界著名經濟學家及其著作大全
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