Ⅰ 经济学英文论文 Impact Of Oil Prices On Inflation Economics 有能能够帮忙或者推荐个靠谱点的吗 可报酬
我不会哈哈哈哈哈哈
Ⅱ 求一篇2000字的经济类英文文章及翻译（英文要2000字），谢谢！
Health care
A new prescription for the poor
为贫穷者新开的处方
America is developing a two-tier health system, one for those with private insurance, the other for the less well-off
美国正在发展一个双重的健康系统，一重是为那些有个人保险的人群，而另一重则是为那些不那么富裕的人群
Oct 8th 2011 | NEW YORK | from the print edition
“IT’S
time for Dancing with the Stars!”, a woman announces enthusiastically.
At this New York health centre, wedged between housing projects to the
east and Chinatown to the west, “dancing with the stars” means dancing
with a physical therapist. An old man stands up with a nurse and begins a
determined samba.
“是时候和明星一起跳舞了！”一位女士满怀热情地宣告。在这个坐落于房屋工程的西面，唐人街东面的纽约健康中心，“和明星起舞”的意思是和一位物理治疗师跳舞。一位老者和一个护士站起来，开始跳事先确定好的桑巴舞。
Comprehensive
Care Management (CCM), which runs this centre, tries to keep old people
active. To do so, explains Joseph Healy, the chief operating officer,
is in the company’s best interest. The government pays CCM a capped rate
for the care of its members. If someone gets sick, his health costs
rise and the company’s margin shrinks. Mr Healy argues that the system
is the best way to provide good care at a low cost. Increasingly others
seem to agree.
经营这个中心的综合护理管理部门（CCM）努力保持老人们的活力。约瑟夫-海莉，首席运营官解释说，这样做符合公司
的最佳利益。政府给这个部门一个封顶的津贴来让他们照顾这些人。如果有人生病了，他的健康成本就会上升，公司的利润就会萎缩。海莉先生确定说这个系统能够
在一个低成本上提供最佳的护理。其他人也逐渐同意这个观点。
Medicaid, America’s health programme
for the poor, is in the process of being transformed. Over the next
three years, New York will move its entire Medicaid population into
“managed care”, paying companies a set rate to tend to the poor, rather
than paying a fee for each service. New York is not alone. States from
California to Mississippi are expanding managed care. It is the
culmination of a steady shift in the way most poor Americans receive
their health-care treatment.
公共医疗补助，即美国的穷人健康计划，正在被改造的过程中。在接下来的
三年内，纽约将把整个接受穷人健康计划的人群纳入“管理关怀”之中，付给公司们一个事先定好的费用来照顾那些穷人，而不是按照项目来付费。纽约不是唯一这
样做的州。加州，密西西比州正在拓展管理关怀计划。这代表一种正在进行中的稳步转变，即大部分贫穷美国人接受健康关怀方式的转变。
Medicaid
is America’s single biggest health programme. This year roughly one in
five Americans will be covered by Medicaid for a month or more. It
gobbles more federal and local money than any state programme, other
than ecation. Costs will rise even more when Barack Obama’s
health-care reform expands the programme by easing eligibility rules in
2014. Congress’s “supercommittee” is already considering cuts. However,
there are more immediate pressures behind the present drive for change.
公
共医疗补助是美国最大的单一健康计划。今年，五个美国人中的一个就会被纳入该计划一个月或更长时间。除了教育之外，它比其他任何州的财政计划耗去更多联邦
和地方的经费。当2014年奥巴马的健康保险改革放宽适用人群而使整个计划更加庞大的时候，成本将会进一步上升。众议院的“超级委员会”已经在考虑削减经
费。然而，选择这种变化，将会有更多即刻的压力存在。
Enrolment in Medicaid jumped ring the
downturn, from 42.7m in December 2007 to 50.3m in June 2010. Mr Obama’s
stimulus bill helped to pay for some of this, but that money has dried
up. Faced with gaping deficits, some desperate governors slashed
payments to hospitals and doctors, or refused to pay for trips to the
dentist or oculist. But much the most important result has been
structural: the expansion of managed care.
公共医疗补助计划的参与人数在经济滑坡期间从2007年
12月的
4270万人跳到了2010年6月的5030万人。奥巴马先生的经济刺激经费能够帮助付掉其中的一部分，但是钱已经被用光。面对资金短缺，一些绝望的州长
砍掉了给医院和医生的补助，或是拒绝支付牙医和眼科医生的旅行费用。但是，更多地，最重要的结果是结构上的：管理关怀的拓展。
States
have dabbled in managed care for decades. The trend accelerated in the
1990s, with the share of Medicaid patients under this form of care
reaching 72% by 2009. Now, however, there is a strong push for the
remainder. States that did not have managed care, such as Louisiana, are
introcing it. Other states are extending it to people previously
deemed off limits: California and New York, for example, are moving the
elderly and disabled into that system of care. Texas is targeting more
than 400,000 Medicaid beneficiaries in the Rio Grande Valley. Local
politicians had resisted the move, nervous that care might deteriorate.
But the yawning deficit meant that they were overruled.
各个州涉足管理关怀已经有几
十年的历史了。这个趋势在90年代得到加速发展，在2009年前使用这种护理方式的公共医疗补助病人占到了72%。现在，对于剩下的人，这也是很强的推动
力。像路易斯安那州这样没有管理关怀的州正在引进管理关怀。其他州也把这个拓展到原先被认为不适用的人群：举例说像加州和纽约州，正在把老人和残障人士纳
入这个系统中，德州的目标是在格兰德河谷超过400000公共医疗补助收益人群。地方政治家反对这个举动，他们担心这个护理系统将会变质。但是巨大的赤字
意味着他们的观点注定要被批驳。
The result is a country with two distinct tiers
of health care. Most Americans with private insurance are still
horrified by thoughts of health-management organisations and prefer to
pay fees for each medical service. For the poor, managed care is
becoming the norm.
结果就是一个国家有两套截然不同的健康保险系统。大多数有个人保险的美国人仍旧害怕那些健康管理组织的想法而宁愿为单独的医疗服务付费。对于穷人来说，管理关怀已经成为一种常规。
Advocates
of managed care have high expectations. First, they hope that it will
make costs more predictable. Second, they believe that the change will
improve patients’ health. In managed care, a patient has a network of
doctors and specialists. If the programme works properly, doctors can
monitor all aspects of care, in contrast to the fragmented
fee-for-service system. The contracts that states have with firms can
set standards for quality. Texas, for instance, will cut 5% from a
company’s payment if it does not meet what is required.
管理关怀的鼓吹者有着很高的
期待。首先，他们希望这能让成本变得可以预测，其次，他们相信，这个改变可以改善病人的健康。在管理关怀中，一个病人有一个由医生和专家组成的网络。如果
这个计划运行良好，医生可以监测关怀的各个方面，相对于分离的的按服务付钱的系统来说。州政府和公司的合同可以为质量定下标准。德州，举例说，将会在付款
中扣除5%如果公司没有达到要求的标准。
The next step is to integrate care for those
eligible for both Medicaid and Medicare, the federal programme for the
old. These “als” account for almost 40% of Medicaid’s costs and just
15% of its population. “If managed care can really deliver better care
than fee-for-service”, says Diane Rowland, chair of the commission that
advises Congress on Medicaid, “this is the population that could prove
it.”
下一步是整合那些同时符合公共医疗补助和长者医疗补助计划（联邦老人医疗补助）的人群。这些“双符合”人群占据了将近40%的公共医疗补
助成本和仅仅15%的人口数量。“如果管理关怀能真正比按项目付费带来更好的服务”，戴安-罗兰德，委员会（指导国会在公共医疗补助政策上进行决策）主任
说：“这是一群能证明管理关怀可行的人。”
But some, such as Norma Vescovo, are
sceptical. As the head of the non-profit Independent Living Centre of
Southern California (ILCSC), Ms Vescovo serves Medicaid patients with
severe health problems. Over the years she has often sued California on
policies that she thinks will hurt her vulnerable clients. On October
3rd her case moved to the Supreme Court.
但是一些人，例如像诺玛-凡斯科夫就对此表示怀疑。作为非盈利的南加州独立生活中心主任，凡斯科夫女士服务于那些有严重健康问题的接受公共医疗补助的病人。在这些年间，她经常控告加州政府在一些政策上会伤害她的一些脆弱的客户。在10月3日，她的案子被移到了上诉法院。
The
outcome of Douglas v Independent Living Centre will have profound
implications for the future of Medicaid. Ms Vescovo’s suit concerns cuts
to hospitals and doctors. But the case will also guide the course of
managed care. If ILCSC and its co-plaintiffs win, private groups will
continue to be able to challenge states on policies they think violate
federal Medicaid law. Ms Vescovo, who argues that California’s payment
cuts would eviscerate her clients’ access to services, worries that
under managed care the disabled might not be able to see the specialists
they need.
道格拉斯 v
独立生活中心的结果将会对公共医疗补助有深远的意义。凡斯科夫女士的诉讼影响到医院和医生的津贴削减。但是这个案子将会引领管理关怀的进程。如果中心和其
他原告胜诉，私人团体将会继续在那些他们认为违反联邦法律的政策上挑战州政府。凡斯科夫女士认为说加州的支付削减计划会让她的客户失去得到服务的机会，她
还担心，在管理关怀之下，那些残障人士可能不能见到那些他们需要的专家。
The question is how to
supervise the experiments with managed care that are being carried out
in various states. To date, Medicaid beneficiaries have been able to
challenge the states in court. However, if the Supreme Court rules
against ILCSC, that avenue will be closed. The Centres for Medicare and
Medicaid Services (CMS) technically can intervene if states do not
provide proper access to care. In reality, CMS has few tools to do so.
问
题是怎么监管在不同州试运行的管理关怀。到目前为止，公共医疗补助受益者已经能够在法庭中挑战政府。然而，如果上诉法庭结果不利于中心，那么这条路将会被
关闭。如果州政府没有提供合适的关怀的话，公共医疗补助和长者医疗关怀中心理论上是能对此进行干涉，但事实上，他们没有太多办法。
“I’m
a big fan of managed care”, says Sara Rosenbaum, a professor at George
Washington University, “but this transformation may happen with almost
no federal oversight.” Medicaid beneficiaries are vulnerable, in worse
health than Americans as a whole. Companies may struggle to cut costs
and provide good care as well. If states do not draft their contracts
properly, or fail to be vigilant in monitoring patients’ health, their
experiment in managed care could be a disaster. On the other hand, if
states are careful they could provide an answer to the question that has
vexed America for years: how to provide good, cheap health care.
“我是
管理关怀的拥护者”，萨拉-罗森博姆，一位乔治华盛顿大学教授说，“但是这种转变可能在没有联邦监管的情况下发生。”公共医疗补助的受益者和你脆弱，健康
程度整体上比一般美国人要差。公司可能在削减成本的同时挣扎着同样提供良好的服务。如果州政府们不好好起草他们的合同，或没有警觉地监控病人的健康的话，
他们在管理关怀上的实验可能会是一场灾难。另一方面，如果州政府们认真的话，他们能为那个困扰美国人多年的问题提供答案，即怎么提供优质的便宜的健康关
怀。
Ⅲ 经济类的英文论文
Half-way from rags to riches
Apr 24th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Vietnam has made a remarkable recovery from war and penury, says Peter Collins (interviewed here). But can it change enough to join the rich world?
Eyevine
Correction to this article
KNEES and knuckles scraping the ground, the visitors struggle to keep up with the tour guide who is briskly leading the way through the labyrinth of claustrophobic burrows g into the hard earth. The legendary Cu Chi tunnels, from which the Viet Cong launched waves of surprise attacks on the Americans ring the Vietnam war, are now a popular tourist attraction (pictured above). Visitors from all over the world arrive daily at the site near the city that used to be called Saigon, renamed Ho Chi Minh City after the Communists took the south in 1975.
Alongside the wreckage of an abandoned M41 tank another friendly guide demonstrates a dozen types of improvised booby-traps with sharp spikes that were set in and around the tunnels to maim pursuing American soldiers. The Vietnamese not only welcome the tourist dollars Cu Chi brings in, but are also rather proud of it. They feel it demonstrates their ingenuity, adaptability, perseverance and, above all, their determination to resist much stronger foreign invaders, as the country has done many times down the centuries.
These days Vietnam also has plenty of other things to be proud of. In the 1980s Ho Chi Minh's successors as party leaders damaged the war-ravaged economy even more by attempting to introce real communism, collectivising land ownership and repressing private business. This caused the country to slide to the brink of famine. The collapse soon afterwards of its cold-war sponsor, the Soviet Union, added to the country's deep isolation and cut off the flow of roubles that had kept its economy going. Neighbouring countries were inundated with desperate Vietnamese “boat people”.
Since then the country has been transformed by almost two decades of rapid but equitable growth, in which Vietnam has flung open its doors to the outside world and liberalised its economy. Over the past decade annual growth has averaged 7.5%. Young, prosperous and confident Vietnamese throng downtown Ho Chi Minh City's smart Dong Khoi street with its designer shops. The quality of life is high for a country that until recently was so poor, and its larger cities have retained some of their colonial charm, though choking traffic and constant construction work are beginning to take their toll.
An agricultural miracle has turned a country of 85m once barely able to feed itself into one of the world's main providers of farm proce. Vietnam has also become a big exporter of clothes, shoes and furniture, soon to be joined by microchips when Intel opens its $1 billion factory outside Ho Chi Minh City. Imports of machinery are soaring. Exports plus imports equal 160% of GDP, making the economy one of the world's most open.
All this has kept government revenues buoyant despite cuts in import tariffs. The recent introction of company taxes is also helping to fill the government's coffers. Spending on public services has surged, yet public debt, at an acceptable 43% of GDP, has remained fairly stable.
Having made peace with its former foes, Vietnam hosted Presidents Bush, Putin and Hu at the Asia-Pacific summit in 2006 and joined the World Trade Organisation in 2007. This year it has one of the rotating seats on the UN Security Council.
Vietnam's Communists conceded economic defeat 22 years ago, in the depths of a crisis, and brought in market-based reforms called doi moi (renewal), similar to those Deng Xiaoping had introced in China a few years earlier. As in China, it took time for the effects to show up, but over the past few years economic liberalisation has been fostering rapid, poverty-recing growth.
The World Bank's representative in Vietnam, Ajay Chhibber, calls Vietnam a “poster child” of the benefits of market-oriented reforms. Not only does it comply with the catechism of the “Washington Consensus”— enterprise, free trade, sensible state finances and so on—but it also ticks all the boxes for the Millennium Development Goals, the UN's anti-poverty blueprint. The proportion of households with electricity has doubled since the early 1990s, to 94%. Almost all children now attend primary school and benefit from at least basic literacy.
Vietnam no longer really needs the multilateral organisations' aid. Multilateral and bilateral donors together have promised the country $5.4 billion in loans and grants this year, but with so much foreign investment pouring in, Vietnam's currency reserves increased by almost double that figure last year. At least the aid donors have learned from the mid-1990s, when excessive praise discouraged Vietnam from continuing to reform, prompting an exos of investors. Now the tone in private meetings with officials is much franker, says a diplomat who attends them.
Vietnam has become the darling of foreign investors and multinationals. Firms that draw up a “China-plus-one” strategy for new factories in case things go awry in China itself often make Vietnam the plus-one. Wage costs remain well below those in southern China and proctivity is growing faster, albeit from a lower base. When the UN Conference on Trade and Development asked multinationals where they planned to invest this year and next, Vietnam, at number six, was the only South-East Asian country in the top ten.
The government's programme of selling stakes in publicly owned firms and exposing them to market discipline has recently gathered pace. At the same time the switch from a command economy to free competition has allowed the Vietnamese people's entrepreneurialism to flourish. Almost every household now seems to be running a micro-business on the side, and a slew of ambitious larger firms is coming to the stockmarket.
Much of the praise now being showered anew on the country is deserved. The government is well on course for its target of turning Vietnam into a middle-income country by 2010. Its longer-term aim, of becoming a modern instrial nation by 2020, does not seem unrealistic.
But from now on the going may get tougher. As Mr Chhibber notes, few countries escape the “middle-income trap” as they become richer. They tend to lose their reformist zeal and see their growth fizzle. A study in 2006 by the Vietnamese Academy of Social Sciences concluded that further rections in poverty will require higher growth rates than in the past because the remaining poor are well below the poverty line, whereas many of those who recently crossed it did not have far to go.
The stench of corruption
The Communist Party leadership openly admits that the Vietnamese public is fed up with the endemic corruption at all levels of public life, from lowly traffic policemen and clerks to the most senior people in ministries. In 2006, just before the party's five-yearly congress, the transport minister resigned and several officials were arrested over a scandal in which millions of dollars of foreign aid were gambled on the outcome of football matches. The leadership insists it is doing its best to clean up, but a lot remains to be done.
Almost as bad as the corruption is the glacial speed of legislative and bureaucratic processes. Proposed laws have to pass through all sorts of hoops before taking effect, with endless rounds of consultations to build consensus. The dividing line between the Communist Party, the government and the courts is not always clear. The justice system is rudimentary. Lawyers have no formal access to past case files, so they find it hard to use precedent in legal argument.
The government is part-way through a huge project to slim the bureaucracy and streamline official proceres. It recently cut the number of ministries from 28 to 22. Yet for the moment the bureaucratic logjam is stopping the country building the roads, power stations and other public works it needs to maintain its growth rate. Nguyen Tan Dung, the prime minister, says that if growth is to continue at its current rate, the country's electricity-generating capacity needs to double by 2010. That seems a tall order, to put it mildly.
Soaring car-ownership is leaving the country's underdeveloped roads increasingly gridlocked. In an admirably liberal attempt to limit price distortions as oil surged above $100 a barrel, the government slashed fuel subsidies in February. But one effect will be to stoke inflation, already worryingly high at 19.4% in March. Bank lending surged by 38% last year as firms and indivials borrowed to speculate on shares and property.
The government is finding it much harder to manage an economy made up of myriad private companies, banks and investors than to issue instructions to a limited number of state institutions, especially as the public sector is currently suffering a drain of talent to private firms that are able to offer much higher pay.
What could go wrong
All this leaves Vietnam's continued economic development exposed to a number of risks:
• Rising inflation—which is hurting low earners in particular—and a growing shortage of affordable housing could create a new urban underclass among unskilled workers who have left the land for the cities. Combined with rising resentment at official corruption and the increasing visibility of Vietnam's new rich, this could cause social friction and bring strikes and protests, chipping away at the political stability that has underpinned Vietnam's strong growth and investment.
• Trade liberalisation and increased domestic competition will benefit some firms and farmers but hurt others—especially inefficient state enterprises. These could join forces and press the government to halt or even reverse the reforms.
• The slumping stockmarket or perhaps a property crash could cause a big firm or bank to fail. Given the country's weak and untested bankruptcy laws and financial regulators, the authorities may find it hard to deal with that kind of calamity.
• Natural disasters, from bird flu to floods, could cause chaos.
• The economy could come up against the limits of its creaking infrastructure and the shortage of people with higher skills. Jammed roads, power blackouts and the inability to fill managerial and professional jobs could all bring Vietnam's growth rate crashing down.
Vietnam has set itself such demanding standards that even if some combination of these factors did no more than push annual growth below 5%, it would be seen as a serious setback. The foreign minister, Pham Gia Khiem, notes that Vietnam's current growth of around 8-9% is lower than that in Asia's richest economies at the same stage in their development.
Despite the risks ahead, Vietnam has already provided the world with an admirable model for overcoming war, division, penury and isolation and growing strongly but equitably to reach middle-income status. This model could be followed by many impoverished African states or, closer to home, perhaps by North Korea. If it can be combined with graal political liberalisation, it might even offer something for China to think about.
Ⅳ 经济学论文英文参考文献
知网上很多
Ⅳ 急求中英文对照的经济学论文
毕业设计专卖
机械专业，经济管理，法律专业，计算机专业，数控专业，自动化专业，机电一体化专业，等等，设计都是其他学校答辩通过的
Ⅵ 经济类英语文章
建议你去沪江论坛上看看，或者就是《The Economist》
Ⅶ 急求一篇英文的经济学论文
授之以鱼不如授之以渔！蛋卷是某大学国际贸易学系学生，很高兴能帮上你。其实回有个很好的办法答可以让你迅速拿到这样的文献。我们一般找中英文的文献和论文都是用这样的办法。上google，然后收索你要的作品名称或者重点词汇在后面加.pdf.例如 “ economic .pdf”或者“ economic .doc” 这样。你要找什么论文或者文献就重点词+.pdf 或者重点词+.doc 蛋卷用这个办法屡试不爽，你可以多找几篇，看看论文的架构和作者的思路，并且适当参考。蛋卷提醒使用此方法应该注意的问题：1.一定要用google，因为只有google带有强大的pdf文件检索功能，效果会偏差。 2.注意重点词，如果用一个重点词找不到合适的论文，建议换几个重点词试试，肯定可以下到论文 3.尽量从检索页第一页偏下方开始找论文。因为google也是有检索排行的，所以一些论文网站会排在你检索到的信息前面，一般都是需要注册或者付费下载。一般直接点开链接就出现下载的页面在检索页第一页靠后一点的位置开始。 4.多试试，肯定有。相信蛋卷。希望蛋卷的回答对你有帮助。
Ⅷ 求经济类英文文章(带中文翻译)
INTO THE STORM
FOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.
过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。
No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.
不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。
Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services instry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.
新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。
Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.
有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。
Blowing cold on credit
对信贷没兴趣
The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.
众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。
In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.
在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。
Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.
幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。
One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.
至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。
The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.
比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。
Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank l-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.
需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。
A wing and a prayer
飞行之翼与祈祷者
This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.
信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。
Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.
在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。
The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.
其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。
There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will l them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.
受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。
希望采纳
Ⅸ 经济学 求萨缪尔森的经济论文（中英对照的更好） 其他经济学家的也要 同时求世界著名经济学家及其著作大全
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